Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 15.402888 18.700692 22.350964 26.666214 31.602469 37.047139 43.480121
2025-11-23 10.202190 14.333499 19.410171 25.998039 34.204346 43.971350 56.346506
2025-11-30 7.875374 12.413856 18.454859 26.844880 37.935694 51.826397 70.241496
2025-12-07 5.950534 10.460711 16.923622 26.457054 39.717915 57.047090 80.881415
2025-12-14 4.748578 9.222542 16.069166 26.706057 42.145153 63.031840 92.616215
2025-12-21 3.522893 7.636406 14.392181 25.468942 42.253594 65.752064 100.000475
2025-12-28 2.949023 7.005140 14.060427 26.130189 45.035214 72.195311 112.629752
2026-01-04 2.434706 6.351746 13.568292 26.435490 47.236263 77.853833 124.341171
2026-01-11 2.044352 5.840884 13.227085 26.909751 49.670472 83.905934 136.795934
2026-01-18 1.757542 5.473692 13.078436 27.662164 52.547118 90.695912 150.527010
2026-01-25 1.395375 4.829933 12.296408 27.204920 53.396536 94.420195 159.854837
2026-02-01 1.166341 4.441516 11.950925 27.474400 55.425540 99.995376 172.082572
2026-02-08 0.928493 3.970280 11.397623 27.377768 56.963973 105.094344 184.149914
2026-02-15 0.695951 3.418496 10.568777 26.660560 57.382968 108.461041 193.762522
2026-02-22 0.593481 3.233417 10.542420 27.521850 60.636796 116.519054 210.900962
2026-03-01 0.453130 2.844348 9.943749 27.126301 61.556385 120.755410 222.152296
2026-03-08 0.365328 2.605265 9.672038 27.380170 63.672269 127.041919 236.833813
2026-03-15 0.251031 2.167390 8.764830 26.118735 62.801175 128.203233 243.274067
2026-03-22 0.209389 2.045627 8.718678 26.793012 65.705251 135.937494 260.618757
2026-03-29 0.167372 1.887379 8.528682 27.104306 67.897590 142.498829 276.208202
2026-04-05 0.135949 1.763722 8.417727 27.587844 70.453236 149.777770 293.175599
2026-04-12 0.113894 1.681559 8.423384 28.354899 73.622206 158.245547 312.342475
2026-04-19 0.081358 1.476861 7.961848 27.888768 74.196514 162.057700 323.755976